Simulation Builder - Inverse Simulation#

3. Inverse Simulation#

The Inverse Simulation determines the necessary inputs (e.g., number of wells or frac crews) to achieve a target production level.

Steps to run#

  1. Open Simulation Builder and select Inverse Simulation.

  2. Provide at least one production type (Oil or Gas) for inversion.

  3. Enter the fields shown on screen (see the “Input fields” table below).

  4. After you type a value for Monthly production, click the “+” icon (highlighted in red) to add it to the input field. The value appears as a small chip directly beneath the field.

  5. Click Simulate.

    Enter Input Value fields for Inverse Simulation
  6. A Please wait screen appears while the model queries history, prepares parameters, and connects to the Production Studio API.

    Please wait modal while the simulation runs
  7. When the run finishes, you will see a message as Simulation completed successfully.

    Simulation completed successfully modal
  8. The builder automatically generates an Excel worksheet with all inputs and results.

Input fields (Inverse Simulation)#

The table below lists the input fields required.

Field

What it means / how it’s used

Sample value

Region

The main geographic region for the simulation.

northeast

Subregion

The specific subregion or state within the selected region.

OH

State Code

Letter code representing the state.

OH

County

County name within the selected state.

HOLMES

Operator

The operating company or entity managing the wells.

ANGUS ENERGY LLC

End Date

The end date for the simulation time frame.

10/29/2025

Simulation Start Date

The date the forecast begins.

6/2/2024

Production type

Select what values in future production refer to eg:- Gas, Oil

Oil

Monthly production

Total production volume recorded for a given month.

6

Monthly Completions per Frac Crew

Scalar used to convert between number of completions and number of frac crews.

3.09

Well Efficiency Factor

Scalar used to increase/decrease the IP rate of wells each year. Only applicable if simulation length is longer than 12 months.

1

Crew Efficiency Factor

Scalar used to increase/decrease the Monthly Completions per Frac Crew. Only applicable if simulation length is longer than 12 months.

1

Gas IPR (mcf/day)

Initial production rate of gas in the production profile (mcf/day)

7613

Gas Decline rate

Exponential decay rate applied to the gas production profile

-0.03

Gas Minimum production (mcf/day)

Y-intercept applied to the gas production profile such that oil production never drops below this point (mcf/day)

0

Oil IPR (bbl/day)

Initial production rate of oil in the production profile (bbl/day)

186

Oil Decline rate

Exponential decay rate applied to the oil production profile

-0.06

Oil Minimum production (bbl/day)

Y-intercept applied to the gas production profile such that oil production never drops below this point (bbl/day)

0

Viewing the Excel output#

The simulation generates a new Excel worksheet and writes results to the new worksheet in your workbook.

Inverse Simulation - Excel output

Sample Output#

The model generates an Excel sheet with your simulation results. Below is a shortened example from Inverse Simulation showing the exact columns produced. (Only a few rows are shown for readability; your sheet will include many more.)

Studio Inputs#

Region

SubRegion

StateCode

County

Operator

StartDate

EndDate

northeast

OH

1/1/2021

NumWellsList

NumMonthsList

NumFracsList

NumTilDays

GasExpParams (mcf/day, decay rate, mcf/day)

OilExpParams (bbl/day, decay rate, bbl/day)

SimulationStart

WellEfficiencyFactor

CrewEfficiencyFactor

WellFracRatio

1

0

6512, -0.05, 126

221, -0.08, 0

11/26/2025

1

1

3.15

Average Well Production Profile, Well Production Vintage by FirstProductionMonth, Historic Monthly Completions, Simulated Monthly Completions, Historic Average Daily Frac Crews, Simulated Average Daily Frac Crews#

Average Well Production Profile

ProductionMonth

GasDaily (mcf/day)

OilDaily (bbl/day)

1

6320.406012

204.0087126

2

6018.301266

188.3237774

3

5730.930342

173.8447573

Well Production Vintage by FirstProductionMonth This table allows the user to make a wedge chart if grouping by Vintage where each wedge represents the amount of the total production contributed by each vintage.

FirstProductionMonth

Date

GasDaily (mcf/day)

OilDaily (bbl/day)

2025-10-26

2022-01-01

6138901.592

49069.67684

2025-10-26

2022-02-01

6138879.45

49069.56207

2025-10-26

2022-03-01

6138861.299

49071.25261

Historic Monthly Completions

Date

CompletionsCount

2022-01-01

51

2022-02-01

1

2022-03-01

3

Simulated Monthly Completions

Date

CompletionsCount

2025-11-26

949

Historic Average Daily Frac Crews This table provides the historical data with Sum of active frac crews every day in a month divided by the number of days in the month.

Date

FracCrewsCount

2021-03-01

4.333333333

2021-04-01

4.866666667

2021-05-01

5.419354839

Simulated Average Daily Frac Crews This table provides the simulated data with Sum of active frac crews every day in a month divided by the number of days in the month.

Date

FracCrewsCount

2025-11-26

301.2698413

Note

The Excel sheet contains many additional rows (months) that are not shown here for brevity.

Output field explanations (Inverse Simulation)#

Use this table to interpret the columns in the Excel output.

Column / Section

Meaning

Region, SubRegion, StateCode, County, Operator, StartDate, EndDate

Context for the area/operator used to build the forecast.

NumWellsList

Number of completed wells each month, each element in list represents one month.

NumMonthsList

Number of months simulated (for this mode, a single value is stored).

NumFracsList

Number of active frac crews each month, each element in list represents one month.

GasExpParams (mcf/day,decay rate,mcf/day)

IP Rate, decline rate, and minimum production for exponential gas production profile passed as an array.

OilExpParams (bbl/day,decay rate,bbl/day)

IP Rate, decline rate, and minimum production for exponential oil production profile passed as an array

SimulationStart

The simulation start date you entered.

WellEfficiencyFactor

Efficiency multiplier applied to well performance.

CrewEfficiencyFactor

Efficiency multiplier applied to frac crew productivity.

WellFracRatio

Ratio of wells to frac crews.

ProductionMonth

Number of months the well has been producing at a given point in time.

GasDaily(mcf/day)

Gas production amount in MCF per day.

OilDaily(bbl/day)

Oil Production amount in BBL per day.

FirstProductionMonth

First month that a well started producing, production results aggregated up by this field in results.

Date (Vintage)

Date for each historical vintage cohort used to compute production by first production month.

GasDaily (Vintage,mcf/day), OilDaily (Vintage,bbl/day)

Modeled totals by vintage for the cohort starting in Date (Vintage).

Date (HistComp)

Month of historic completions.

CompletionsCount (Hist)

Total number of well completions by month in results (History).

Date (SimComp)

Date of simulated completions from your inputs.

CompletionsCount (Sim)

Total number of well completions by month in results (Simulated).

Date (HistFrac)

Date of historic average daily frac crews.

FracCrewsCount (Hist)

Observed average daily frac crews for that month.

Date (SimFrac)

Date of simulated average daily frac crews.

FracCrewsCount (Sim)

Simulated average daily frac crews for that month given your inputs.