Simulation Builder - Forward Simulation: Multiple#

2. Forward Simulation: Multiple#

The Forward Simulation: Multiple allow users to analyze different production scenarios by running several simulations with varying well and frac parameters.

Steps to run#

  1. Open Simulation Builder and select Forward Simulation: Multiple.

  2. Enter the fields shown on screen (see the “Input fields” table below).

  3. Specify the Number of Simulations to generate.

  4. Provide Min/Max ranges for Well Completions and Active Frac Crews.

  5. Click Simulate.

  6. A Please wait screen appears while the model queries history, prepares parameters, and connects to the Production Studio API.

  7. When the run finishes, you will see a message as Simulation completed successfully.

  8. The builder automatically generates an Excel worksheet with all inputs and results.

Input fields (Forward Simulation: Multiple)#

The table below lists the input fields required.

Field

What it means / how it’s used

Sample value

Region

The main geographic region for the simulation.

northeast

Subregion

The specific subregion or state within the selected region.

OH

State Code

Letter code representing the state.

OH

County

County name within the selected state.

HOLMES

Operator

The operating company or entity managing the wells.

ANGUS ENERGY LLC

End Date

The end date for the simulation time frame.

10/29/2025

Simulation Start Date

The date the forecast begins.

6/2/2024

Monthly Completions

Number of new wells producing each month.

21

Monthly Active Frac Crews

Average number of active frac crews per day each month.

6

Monthly Completions per Frac Crew

Scalar used to convert between number of completions and number of frac crews.

3.09

Well Efficiency Factor

Scalar used to increase/decrease the IP rate of wells each year. Only applicable if simulation length is longer than 12 months.

1

Crew Efficiency Factor

Scalar used to increase/decrease the Monthly Completions per Frac Crew. Only applicable if simulation length is longer than 12 months.

1

Gas IPR (mcf/day)

Initial production rate of gas in the production profile (mcf/day)

7613

Gas Decline rate

Exponential decay rate applied to the gas production profile

-0.03

Gas Minimum production (mcf/day)

Y-intercept applied to the gas production profile such that gas production never drops below this point

0

Oil IPR (bbl/day)

Initial production rate of oil in the production profile (bbl/day)

186

Oil Decline rate

Exponential decay rate applied to the oil production profile

-0.06

Oil Minimum production (bbl/day)

Y-intercept applied to the oil production profile such that oil production never drops below this point

0

Number of simulations

Number of simulations to run

1

Range

Each range represents one month and the number of ranges is the length of the simulations.

1

Well Completions: Min

Lower bound of monthly complete wells

5

Well Completions: Max

Upper bound of monthly complete wells.

250

Active Frac Crews: Min

Lower bound of monthly active frac crews.

3

Active Frac Crews: Max

Upper bound of monthly active frac crews

8

Viewing the Excel output#

The simulation generates a new Excel worksheet and writes results to the new worksheet in your workbook.

Forward Simulation (Multiple) - Excel output

Sample Output#

The model generates an Excel sheet with your simulation results. Below is a shortened example from Forward Simulation: Multiple showing the exact columns produced. (Only a few rows are shown for readability; your sheet will include many more.)

Studio Inputs#

Region

SubRegion

StateCode

County

Operator

StartDate

EndDate

gulf

Central - TX

1/1/2021

NumWellsList

NumMonthsList

NumFracsList

NumTilDays

GasExpParams (mcf/day, decay rate, mcf/day)

OilExpParams (bbl/day, decay rate, bbl/day)

SimulationStart

WellEfficiencyFactor

CrewEfficiencyFactor

WellFracRatio

22

1

2.591283863

30

2740, -0.04, 64

53, -0.07, 2

11/1/2025

1

1

8.49

Average Well Production Profile, Well Production Vintage by FirstProductionMonth, Historic Monthly Completions, Simulated Monthly Completions, Historic Average Daily Frac Crews, Simulated Average Daily Frac Crews#

Average Well Production Profile

ProductionMonth

GasDaily (mcf/day)

OilDaily (bbl/day)

1

2696.563063

51.41687246

2

2593.338789

48.07598648

3

2494.161997

44.96096504

Well Production Vintage by FirstProductionMonth This table allows the user to make a wedge chart if grouping by Vintage where each wedge represents the amount of the total production contributed by each vintage

FirstProductionMonth

Date

GasDaily (mcf/day)

OilDaily (bbl/day)

2025-10-01

2022-01-01

3402202.482

211412.4171

2025-10-01

2022-02-01

3303487.084

199842.0353

2025-10-01

2022-03-01

3357329.444

211168.8562

Historic Monthly Completions

Date

CompletionsCount

2022-01-01

39

2022-02-01

38

2022-03-01

22

Simulated Monthly Completions

Date

CompletionsCount

2025-11-01

22

Historic Average Daily Frac Crews This table provides the historical data with Sum of active frac crews every day in a month divided by the number of days in the month

Date

FracCrewsCount

2021-01-01

1

2021-02-01

2.769230769

2021-03-01

1

Simulated Average Daily Frac Crews This table provides the simulated data with Sum of active frac crews every day in a month divided by the number of days in the month

Date

FracCrewsCount

2025-11-01

2.591283863

Note

The Excel sheet contains many additional rows (months) that are not shown here for brevity.

Output field explanations (Forward: Multiple)#

Use this table to interpret the columns in the Excel output.

Column / Section

Meaning

Region, SubRegion, StateCode, County, Operator, StartDate, EndDate

Context for the area/operator used to build the forecast.

NumWellsList

Number of completed wells each month, each element in list represents one month.

NumMonthsList

Number of months simulated (for this mode, a single value is stored).

NumFracsList

Number of active frac crews each month, each element in list represents one month.

GasExpParams (mcf/day,decay rate,mcf/day)

IP Rate, decline rate, and minimum production for exponential gas production profile passed as an array.

OilExpParams (bbl/day,decay rate,bbl/day)

IP Rate, decline rate, and minimum production for exponential oil production profile passed as an array.

SimulationStart

The simulation start date you entered.

WellEfficiencyFactor

Efficiency multiplier applied to well performance.

CrewEfficiencyFactor

Efficiency multiplier applied to frac crew productivity.

WellFracRatio

Ratio of wells to frac crews.

ProductionMonth

Number of months the well has been producing at a given point in time.

GasDaily(mcf/day)

Gas production amount in MCF per day.

OilDaily(bbl/day)

Oil Production amount in BBL per day.

FirstProductionMonth

First month that a well started producing, production results aggregated up by this field in results.

Date (Vintage)

Date for each historical vintage cohort used to compute production by first production month.

GasDaily (Vintage,mcf/day), OilDaily (Vintage,bbl/day)

Modeled totals by vintage for the cohort starting in Date (Vintage).

Date (HistComp)

Month of historic completions.

CompletionsCount (Hist)

Total number of well completions by month in results (History).

Date (SimComp)

Date of simulated completions from your inputs.

CompletionsCount (Sim)

Total number of well completions by month in results (Simulated).

Date (HistFrac)

Date of historic average daily frac crews.

FracCrewsCount (Hist)

Total number of active frac crews by month in results (History).

Date (SimFrac)

Date of simulated average daily frac crews.

FracCrewsCount (Sim)

Total number of active frac crews by month in results (Simulated).